http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/oped/2011_elections_to_be_fought_and_lost_over_land.shtml
2011 elections to be fought and lost over land
THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX: JOACHIM BUWEMBO
Uganda’s next general elections will be won and lost over land. Of course these days in East Africa, it is prudent when predicting an election outcome to add the assumption that the results announced will be the same as the ballots cast.
The NRM administration has decided to bring the land matter up again and this time it seems to have caught everyone’s attention. Although land was vigorously debated in the Constituent Assembly of 1994-95, the public did not get very concerned. Then came Benedict Mutyaba’s committee in 1998. Again, not many paid attention. But this time, it looks as if the very survival of the nation and individuals depends on the land debate.
Usually when the Executive brings a bill, there is an obvious political gain envisaged. This time, none is obvious from what is written in the bill. But a lot is being imputed, read between the lines and suspected.
Right now it does not seem to matter so much what is in the bill. What seems to matter more is the anxiety over land because of recent events like attempted resettlement of so-called Balaalo, discovery of oil in Bunyoro, government’s hell-bent determination to give away part of Mabira central forest reserve to an investor who stands to earn $500 million first from clearing the wood before planting sugar cane and the search for land in Acholi before the internally displaced people have fully gone back home. If the Executive is surprised at the vehement opposition to its innocent bill, these are some of the facts.
The reasons why almost everyone in Uganda is now keen on land are not hard to see. The 2002 census showed that the North has the fastest population growth rate, followed by the East, while Masaka’s population growth is virtually zero. So land now matters very much to the North, where millions have been living in camps and are now just planning to return home to the only resource they have by virtue of being children of the soil, the land.
In the East, many have also been in camps. In addition, the Eastern settlements are highly mixed in ethnic composition. That is why there have been heightened demands for little districts in the region to cater for different tribal interests. Ugandans in such areas are bound to get very keen on land policy debates as they want to know their entitlements and securities over the little and large plots they may have acquired or are planning to acquire.
In the West, land is very important partly due to the high population densities. In a place like Bushenyi, people got wise to the need to manage land for development and investment a long time ago. What may not be obvious to many is that an average Bushenyi person understands the value and harnessing of land better than their counterpart anywhere else in Uganda. Bushenyi people should make the loudest noise over land policies since they have invested more sweat, time and money in it than the rest of us.
In the Central region, land has become everything especially because of recent debates, which are not the subject of discussion here. In the next election campaigns, the likely trend will be a single, unified stand on the land question, which will be the only question, in Buganda. Here we are talking about 25 to 31 percent of the votes.
In all, the agenda for the 2011 general election has been set. Whoever comes out with the smartest, most just-sounding land policy proposal will carry the day. (Whether they implement it on winning the elction is another mater.) Even if the land bill is passed in the next few weeks, upholding or amending it will be the major subject of the next elections.
In political power terms therefore, the NRM Executive has handed the Opposition groups the perfect, non-tribal rallying point. NRM also has the opportunity to refine and present the land reform proposals to their most attractive form and actually deliver them to the voters as law.
The land issue is not as narrowly tribal as it may be portrayed by some. There has been more blood shed over land in Bunyoro and the North than in Buganda for instance. Nobody in Uganda wants to see their access to land curtailed by perceived outsiders. People who have never bothered when their taxes, loans and grants are stolen will not accept to have their access to land tampered with.
If someone who steals public funds buys ten luxury vehicles, the people somehow do not get angry with him because he did not take the cars from their garage. But when someone inexplicably fences off several hundred acres, people start asking how and why.
This is because with customary land in Uganda, which I am advised is the akenda (disputed 9,000 sq.miles) in Buganda, you always expected it to be there when the time comes for you to need it. If a smart political group designs a comprehensive, clearheaded and just plan for land and sells it to the people, it will win their hearts hands down.
Mr Buwembo is managing editor, Daily Monitor.
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